基于EMD的景区客流波动特征及其组合预测——以黄山风景区为例     

余向洋  沙润  朱国兴  胡善风 《地理科学进展》2012,31(10):1353-1359

旅游地的发展演化过程研究大多采用Bulter 的生命周期理论路径, 少有文献从波动的视角理解和分析旅游地的发展演化过程。本文以黄山风景区为例, 采用经验模态分解方法(EMD)尝试从波动的视角分析景区客流波动特征, 并利用波动性特征对其发展进行组合预测(经验模态分解方法和最小二乘支持向量机方法的组合)。研究结果表明:黄山景区客流波动呈现出多种形态, 在增长趋势的基础上叠加了季节性波动、景区旅游周期波动和景区经济周期波动。其与最小二乘支持向量机组合预测模型能够对景区客流进行有效预测, 并且运算速度快, 预测精度有所提高;与生命周期曲线相比较更加直观、微观、准确, 并且能够进行较为准确的客流预报, 有助于景区规划管理和战略决策。  相似文献   

2012年印尼8.6级地震应变地震波的Hilbert-Huang时频分析     

李文军  张晶  刘琦  池顺良  梁建宏  王武星  曹建玲 《地震》2014,34(2):45-54

本文通过端点效应压制的Hilbert-Huang变换, 对大同及沁源台布置的四分量钻孔应变仪记录的印尼8.6级地震激发的应变地震波形进行时频分析, 结果显示印尼8.6级地震的主震和8.2级余震的应变地震波序列各个震相具有不同的时频特征: ① 地震波到达之前的所谓“环境噪声”部分, 瞬时频率低, 瞬时振幅小; ② P波初至时, 高频成分突然增加, 振幅也随即增强; ③ S波到达时, 频率有所降低而振幅剧烈上升; ④ 面波到达时, 振幅进一步剧烈上升达到整个序列的极大值; ⑤ 尾波部分振幅逐渐降低, 但与噪声部分相比频率依然偏高, 振幅依然偏大。 本文也将应变地震波与地震仪记录的地震波进行对比, 虽然应变地震波与地震波波形和Fourier谱具有极高的相关系数, 但从Hilbert-Huang变换得到的边际谱上看, 应变地震波与地震波有显著的区别, 应变地震波比地震波记录的低频成分相对更多。 通过Hilbert谱, 有助于更好地了解非平稳信号的局部特征, 对于突变信号的地震波, Hilbert-Huang变换是一个较好的时频分析工具。  相似文献   

Sediment settling in the Latian Dam in Iran     

Farhang BEHRANGI  Mohammad Ali BANIHASHEMI  Shayesteh MAHANI  Mohammad Reza RAHMANIAN 《国际泥沙研究》2014,29(2):208-217

Among the difficulties that influence future dam operations,reservoir sedimentation is the most problematic for engineers.This study predicted the amount and pattern of sedimentation for use in estimation of the useful lifespan of reservoirs and identification of optimal locations for outlets and intakes at the initial stages of dam design.Hydrographic surveys of different dams can provide better insight into this phenomenon.Latian Dam in Iran has conducted hydrographic surveys during 7 time periods.The amount and process of sedimentation in this reservoir were determined,and predictions of distribution of sediments were validated by well-known,common methods.The formation of a delta in the reservoir was investigated for different time periods after operation.Future problems due to the impacts of sedimentation on dam operation and the useful lifespan of the reservoir were predicted.In addition,the study results may be used for developing empirical methods to predict sedimentation patterns in other reservoirs.  相似文献   

Full-scale experimental modal analysis of an arch dam: The first experience in Iran     

《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2014

Forced vibration field tests and finite-element studies were conducted on the Shahid Rajaee concrete arch dam in Northern Iran to determine the dynamic properties of the dam–reservoir–foundation system. The first forced vibration tests on the dam were performed with two different types of exciter units, with a limited maximum force, bolted on the dam crest for alternative in-phase and out-of-phase sequencing. Because of an insufficient number of recording sensors, two arrangements of sensors were used to cover sufficient points on the dam crest and one gallery during tests. Two kinds of vibration tests, on–off and frequency sweeping, were carried out on the dam. The primary natural frequencies of the coupled system for both symmetric and anti-symmetric vibration modes were approximated during on–off tests in two types of sequencing of exciters, in phase and out-of-phase, with a maximum frequency of 14 Hz. The principal forced vibration tests were performed at precise resonant frequencies based on the results of the on–off tests in which sweeping around the approximated frequencies at 0.1 Hz increments was performed. Baseline correction and suitable bandpass filtering were applied to the test records and then signal processing was carried out to compute the auto power, cross power and coherence spectra. Nine middle modes of vibration of the coupled system and corresponding damping ratios were estimated. The empirical results are compared against the results from calibrated finite-element modeling of the system using former ambient vibration tests, considering the dam–reservoir–foundation interaction effects. Good agreement is obtained between experimental and numerical results for eight middle modes of the dam–reservoir–foundation system.  相似文献   

State estimation of tidal hydrodynamics using ensemble Kalman filter     

《Advances in water resources》2014

This paper presents a coupling of an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with a discontinuous Galerkin-based, two-dimensional circulation model (DG ADCIRC-2DDI) to improve the state estimation of tidal hydrodynamics including water surface elevations and depth-integrated velocities. The methodology in this paper using EnKF perturbs the modeled hydrodynamics and bottom friction parameterization in the model while assimilating data with inherent error, and demonstrates a capability to apply EnKF within DG ADCIRC-2DDI for data assimilation. Parallel code development presents a unique aspect of the approach taken and is briefly described in the paper, followed by an application to a real estuarine system, the lower St. Johns River in north Florida, for the state estimation of tidal hydrodynamics. To test the value of gauge observations for improving state estimation, a tide modeling case study is performed for the lower St. Johns River successively using one of the four available tide gauging stations in model-data comparison. The results are improved simulations of water surface elevations and depth-integrated velocities using DG ADCIRC-2DDI with EnKF, both locally where data are available and non-locally where data are not available. The methodology, in general, is extensible to other modeling and data applications, for example, the use of remote sensing data, and specifically, can be readily applied as is to study other tidal systems.  相似文献   

Characterization of error dynamics in a 3D coastal model of the Catalan sea using stochastic modelling     

Gabriel Jordà  Pierre De Mey 《Continental Shelf Research》2010

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重力波在中层大气温度波导中的传播模式研究   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

李俊  张绍东 《地球物理学报》2010,53(2):237-246

本文给出了重力波在中层大气温度波导中的导制传播模型,并在此模型的基础上详细讨论了重力波部分导制传播下的对称模式与非对称模式,导出了不同模式下相应的特征函数和色散方程,进一步用离散的方法对两类色散方程进行了求解;同时还利用二维全隐欧拉格式（FICE）对重力波在温度波导中的传播进行了模拟,模拟的结果也成功地展现了对称与非对称两种传播模式.研究表明,下边界的扰动能量在向上传播进入波导区域后被俘获,形成导制传播.不同周期的初始扰动,在波导内均会形成对称与非对称形式两种模式的导制传播,由于两者的行进速度不一致,最终会引起两种不同模式的分离.数值模拟中重力波的水平行进速度与线性模型预测值非常接近.波导中不同模式下重力波的水平波长与初始扰动的水平波长非常一致,然而波导区域内重力波的频率与初始扰动的频率无关,频率不同的初始扰动会激发出相同频率的重力波对称与非对称导制传播模式.这表明在确定的温度波导中,水平波数才是决定重力波传播特性的决定因素.进一步的分析显示,初始扰动的水平波数-频率分布越接近完全导制传播的色散关系时,温度波导中更易于生成以该种模式部分导制传播的重力波.  相似文献   

Relationship between North Pacific SST anomalies and the atmospheric circulation anomalies in January 2008     

Jianbo Wang  Lei Fan  Qinyu Liu 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2010,9(1):11-15

Based on the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) data, the relationship between the Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTAs) in the North Pacific and the atmospheric circulation anomalies in January 2008 is analyzed in this study. The SSTA mode most correlated with the Geopotential Height anomalies (GHAs) in January 2008 in the North Pacific exhibited a basin-wide horseshoe pattern with a warm center in November 2007. This persistent SSTA pattern would induce positive GHAs in the Aleutian Low area and East Asia and the northward extension of the West Pacific Subtropical High in January 2008 by maximum diabatic heating in the atmosphere over the Kuroshio Oyashio Extension (KOE) area, leading to the occurence of the circumpolar trough-ridge wave train anomaly in January 2008.  相似文献   

对地震预报的科学思考(一)地震预报某些经验与做法的再认识及思考地震预报问题的基本出发点     

陈章立  李志雄 《地震》2008,28(1):1-18

地震预报具有明显的双重属性: 科学性和社会性。 该文着重对地震预报科学性的问题做了评述, 强调地震预报必须以一定的科学理论为指导, 以科学的观测资料为基础, 以预报经验为借鉴。 文中对当前中国地震“活跃期”与“平静期”的划分以及根据地震前兆持续时间将地震孕育过程划分“长、 中、 短、 临”四个阶段和相应的地震“渐近式”预报程式, 和“以场求源”的预报思路做了简要的评论。 此外, 强调论及地震预报必须以浅源地震发生的物理实质及对孕震物理过程的基本认识作为思考问题的基本出发点。  相似文献   

“十五”前兆观测模式之嬗变及其应对   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

黄晖 《华南地震》2008,28(2):103-107

随着科学技术的进步,与“九五”相比,“十五”前兆网络项目在观测模式上有了很大的变化,如何适应这种变化？从网络拓扑、仪器的本质、管理及处理软件、数据采集器、安全性等方面详细的分析了其变化并提出了应对方法。  相似文献